MCCAIN PATH TO VICTORY
WASHINGTON - It is April of 2008, a time when the Republican brand is at an all-time low.
And yet somehow, some way, John McCain is hanging in there. He is proving to be perhaps the only electable Republican in the country, short of Colin Powell or the ineligible Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Conservatives may not be thrilled with what a McCain presidency means, but if social conservatives care about the makeup of the House and Senate, as well state legislatures and the courts, then they should rally around McCain. They know better than most the importance of controlling the legislative and judicial branches to achieve long-term influence.
With McCain representing the Republican brand, even if he were to lose the race he should be able to save a few Senate seats (say 2-3) and a handful of House seats (perhaps 10). The latter could keep the Democrats majority below 250, a reachable number for the GOP in 2010.
But this isn't meant to be just a simple lesson in how McCain can cover the spread. This is about looking at his path to victories.
The first thing McCain needs is for the Democrats to find a nominee. There's a lot of bad conventional wisdom percolating that this drawn out fight is good for McCain. It isn't... at least not yet.
There may be a point where it is good for McCain, say if the fight actually goes all the way to Denver, but short of that, he needs an opponent, badly.
Why? A few reasons, not the least of which is finding out where he stands with the voting public.
Currently polls show McCain either narrowly ahead or even with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It is impressive considering how poorly the GOP, and specifically the president, are viewed by the public.
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